Scottsdale and Metro Phoenix Area Real Estate

Arizona Real Estate News

January  2007

Gary and  Claudia Scott

John Hall & Associates

9366 East Raintree Dr

Suite 101

Scottsdale, AZ

85260

Phone: 480-948-0550

Fax: 480-951-8714

Toll Free: 866-464-2140

E-mail:

 garyandclaudia@cox.net

According to

 David Lereah,

 chief economist

 for the

National Association

of Realtors,

 buyers have a

 "window of

opportunity"

 in 2007

to take

advantage of

 lower mortgage

interest rates

and seller flexibility.

The Current Market Outlook

OK, So what are the Predictions for Real Estate in 2007? What are the ‘experts’ saying?

Of course no one can accurately predict the future. While there are multiple ‘expert’ opinions regarding 2007, the common thread, both locally and nationally, is that the real estate market will be a slow year in terms of sales and a relatively flat to up slightly in in terms of prices. The so called ‘housing bubble’ did not burst and there are strong indicators that it will not burst. 

We can be sure that the frenzy-driven appreciation increase is over. This strong price increase could not be expected to continue.  Overall, 2006 was still the fourth-strongest ever for re-sales in the Phoenix area. Arizona population growth remains strong. The annual increase today is about 3 percent, which translates to about 180,000 new residents per year and creates a base demand for housing.  Assuming Arizona job growth and population flows remain strong, 2007 should be a relatively healthy market. 

Latest ASU Polytechnic research statistics indicate that home prices have continued to climb in many areas throughout the Valley in 2006, even as the number of home sales plunged from   the 2005 record heights.   

This definitely is shown  true in Scottsdale where the median price was $70,000 higher as 2006 came to a close. 

As 2007 unfolds, the volume of home sales and prices in the residential market will gradually move back onto a steady, sustainable trend line. There is a strong movement of buyers to jump back into the market after sitting on the sidelines for fear of prices falling.  The supply of new homes is dropping and supply of existing homes is inching down. Inventory is expected to continue going down in 2007 and reach a more normal level of 30,000 to 35,000. 

The go-go markets of the past couple of years has finally slowed and there are signals the market is getting back to “normal”, you could call that a recovery.

Buyers & Sellers Forecast 10% Increase in Property Values in 2007  

January 3, 2006 - In Q4 2006, Arizona Tax Liens.com surveyed 5,000 buyers and sellers of Arizona real estate to determine what they expected of Arizona property values in 2007.

The survey showed that buyers and sellers foresee an increase of 10% in Arizona property values in 2007 due to the large number of people immigrating to Arizona, which is being fueled by high tech and biotech job growth in Tucson & Phoenix, low housing costs and baby boomers buying their retirement home.

Of the 5,000 people surveyed, 59% planned on buying real estate in Arizona in 2007, 32% planned on selling in 2007, 8% already own and do not plan on selling in 2007 and 1% do not own and are not buying in 2007.

69% of the sellers surveyed plan on selling in Phoenix.

Buyers and sellers ranked Phoenix as having the second best appreciation thanks to the number of good paying jobs, continued investment of businesses in the area and the expected population growth up until 2010.

Buyers:

76%  -   Buying Primary Home

14%  -   Buying Second Homes

14%  -   Buying Investment Properties

Sellers:

46%  -   Selling Primary Home

  5%  - Selling Second Home

28%  -  Selling Investment Properties

Source: ArixonaTaxLeins.com

 Third Quarter 2006 by District MEDIAN sales price:

Resale

New

North Scottsdale

$695,000

$931.695

South Scottsdale

$317,000

North Paradise Valley

$487,000

South Paradise Valley

$975,000